[comments-deletes] WLS-- Do the Math

[Loren Stocker <loren@800.net>]

It has become clear to me that the naive among us assume that end users will
actually GET a WLS option when desired. Duh! Nothing could be further from the
truth. Here's how the WLS Option REALLY works. Let's do a little math!

Valued domains will have dozens of requests for the one, exclusive WLS option.
ALL will be frustrated except the first person who asks. For the best domains,
the WLS option will be "land rushed" and assigned in the first 7 seconds of
release. Those who support WLS are OK with the inequity of one person getting
100% sure thing (read on!) at the expense of dozen(s) of interested parties
being left out in the cold. This is "the public" being excluded from its
resourse. You. Me. Everyone. These rights cannot be sold.

Secondly, let me suggest what these dozen outcasts will do; get dirty! Now
that they have 0% chance of getting their desired domain if it drops, they
have only one option left: Interfer! They will beg, borrow, and -- yes --
steal this domain so that it never drops. You, the naive one with the "100%"
lock will then see this domain reassigned as you helplessly watch.

So how does that math really work? Let me help. If one dozen end users want
the same domain each has an 8.25% chance of being first, right?

The one who wins the WLS Option (first to buy) has less than a 10% chance that
a domain will actually drop WITHOUT being reassigned, transferred or stolen --
let's call it 10%. So, the expectant value is 0.825% (0.1 * 8.25%) of getting
a reasonably valuable domain with WLS option. That's percent. Less than a 1%
chance! 

Yet, there is 91.75% chance of being beat out and barred altogether from
paticipation in the WLS (100-8.25%, or 11/12). If you don't buy first, you are
out! In short, there are 90/1 odds of losing your dream domain if it drop
under WLS (technically 91.75 over 0.825)! Do you really want to take this
chance? Are YOU willing to impose this unethical treatment on others?

Currently, you can hire Snapnames and Dotster and easily get a 20-40% chance
of success by using these "blatantly abuse[ive]" drop services and paying "big
bucks" like $100 -$300 (see some actual bid prices in the post, "THIS IS WHAT
YOU WANT TO DO," and comments that follow. Clearly they are not "blatantly
abusive." That phrase came from one of the comments). Of course, if you're in
busines and no longer live in your parents basement, maybe these aren't such
"big bucks." I happen to know that the closing bids on Dotster are often
$25-$50. Snapname is $69 but will be back to $40-50 once this WLS non-sense
has passed.

I hope this little bit of math helps. The promise of WLS is very appealing and
I understand how many of you have been drawn to this fantasy. Yet, anyone
who's played the lottery knows that the appeal the reality are NOT the same.
Snapnames* is selling a dream! You're buying it. It sounds sooooooo-soooooo
good, doesn't it? Hey.. Somebody has got to lotto! 

Loren Stocker
Vanity International
www.800.net
www.Evil.Biz

* I like Snapname. I use Snapnames. I just think they should stay right where
they are -- at the Registrar level.