Re: [wg-c] Re: IP/TM Concerns & New GTLDs

[Milton Mueller <mueller@syr.edu>]

Kent:
100 gTLDs does not necessarily mean 100 new registries, and it is the
number of registries, not the names as such, that matters most from a
regulatory standpoint.

Perhaps we can start to come to an agreement if I clarify how I approach
the problem. I approach it by starting with the question: what do we need
to do to have effective competition in the gTLD market?

I think we can all agree that authorizing one new gTLD registry is not a
solution to the current situation. We would simply create a new NSI, one
that runs dot firm or dot web instead of com, net and org.

And it's no good to say that you're only going to give it that monopoly
for a year or two. The advantage such a registry would have over its
rivals, given the pent up demand, would be significant.

So you must have more than one new registry. How many should you have?
There's a fairly well developed body of economic literature that says you
need at least 5-7 competitors. Three competitors can too easily become a
price-led oligopoly. It is just too easy for them to coordinate their
pricing and strategies and avoid real competition. So it is better to
push toward 7.

Then there's the fact that each registry probably needs to service more
than one TLD to be viable, to realize economies of scale. Let's face it,
some names are going to be more popular than others. Each registry will
need a repertoire of TLD names. Let's say, at a minimum, each will need
three names.

Five to seven registries operating three TLDs, gives you 15-21 as the
baseline *minimum* that can be introduced if you want to have a
responsive, competitive environment. We just can't talk about any number
smaller than 15, and I'm not comfortable unless we're talking about at
least 20.

And that doesn't even take into account the many demands for non-English
gTLDs, many extant claims for chartered gTLDs, the possibility of
different business models (e.g., what if some of the registries want to
be proprietary?).

All of those questions can be resolved more easily if we have more TLDs
to assign.

The smaller the number of gTLDs, the larger, more divisive and more
unfair will be the political process of assigning them. The smaller the
number, the harder it is to conform to good economic policy and the worse
the results are likely to be from the consumer standpoint.
Call it Mueller's law: there is an inverse relationship between the
number of TLDs we have to work with and the prospects of an economically
and politically beneficial result.

If you disagree with this analysis, and I am quite sure that you will,
please explain how you propose to deal with the competitive implications
of a small number, and how you propose to deal with the equity issues of
assigning monopoly privileges to one firm.

Kent Crispin wrote:

> The operation of new gTLDs clearly involves a number of completely
> new technical activities -- the difficulties that NSI has had in
> bringing their shared registry system online is completely
> illustrative of that.  Confusing the pre-ICANN addition of ccTLDs
> with the addition of new gTLDs under the current management scheme is
> a gross blunder.
>
> But even so, I should have been clearer -- I was using "operational"
> in a general sense, not a strict technical sense.  In particular, the
> operation of new dispute resolution mechanisms is *the* primary
> operational concern.  This DR system is *totally* untried, and its
> operation under with even *one* gTLD is unknown.  Given the
> importance of the DRP in this whole process, adding 100 new gTLDs all
> at once would be a highly irresponsible thing to do.
>
> But the DRP is not the only new system that is being stressed here.
> The whole ICANN regulatory structure is brand new.
>
> Frankly, it amazes me that we even discuss this.  Even the slightest
> hint of common sense should be urging caution in these matters.
>
> --
> Kent Crispin                               "Do good, and you'll be
> kent@songbird.com                           lonesome." -- Mark Twain



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